The effect of information-driven resource allocation on the propagation of epidemic with incubation period.

In the pandemic of COVID-19, there are exposed individuals who are infected but lack distinct clinical symptoms. In addition, the diffusion of related information drives aware individuals to spontaneously seek resources for protection. The special spreading characteristic and coevolution of different processes may induce unexpected spreading phenomena. Thus we construct a three-layered network framework to explore how information-driven resource allocation affects SEIS (susceptible-exposed-infected-susceptible) epidemic spreading. The analyses utilizing microscopic Markov chain approach reveal that the epidemic threshold depends on the topology structure of epidemic network and the processes of information diffusion and resource allocation. Conducting extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we find some crucial phenomena in the coevolution of information diffusion, resource allocation and epidemic spreading. Firstly, when E-state (exposed state, without symptoms) individuals are infectious, long incubation period results in more E-state individuals than I-state (infected state, with obvious symptoms) individuals. Besides, when E-state individuals have strong or weak infectious capacity, increasing incubation period has an opposite effect on epidemic propagation. Secondly, the short incubation period induces the first-order phase transition. But enhancing the efficacy of resources would convert the phase transition to a second-order type. Finally, comparing the coevolution in networks with different topologies, we find setting the epidemic layer as scale-free network can inhibit the spreading of the epidemic.

Allocating resources for epidemic spreading on metapopulation networks

• Proposing a coevolution model for resource allocation and epidemic spreading on metapopulation network. • Develop a mathematical framework to analyze the dynamical system and obtain the epidemic threshold concerning external factors. • The disease can be controlled effectively when resources are allocated unbiased. • There exists an appropriate small value of mobility rate that is propitious to control the disease through numerical analysis and simulations. A practical resource allocation strategy is the prerequisite for disease control during a pandemic affected by various external factors, such as the information about the epidemic state, the interregional population mobility, and the geographical factors. Understanding the influence of these factors on resource allocation and epidemic spreading is the premise for designing an optimal resource allocation strategy. To this end, we study the interaction of resource allocation and epidemic spreading in the scope of the metapopulation model by incorporating the factors of geographic proximity, the information of the epidemic state, the willingness of resource allocation, and the population mobility simultaneously. We develop a mathematical framework based on the Markovian chain approach to analyze the dynamical system and obtain the epidemic threshold concerning external factors. Combining extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the disease can be controlled effectively when resources are allocated unbiased in terms of the geographical factor during a pandemic. Specifically, the spreading size is the lowest, and the epidemic threshold is the largest when resources are allocated unbiasedly between neighbor nodes and other nodes. In addition, when studying the effects of resource allocation on the epidemic threshold, we find the same results, i.e., information-aware resource allocation with unbiased in terms of the geographical factor will raise the epidemic threshold. At last, we study the effects of mobility rate on the dynamical property and find an appropriate small value of mobility rate that is propitious to control the disease through numerical analysis and simulations. Our findings will have a direct application in the development of strategies to suppress the spread of the disease and guide the behavior of individuals during a pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Applied Mathematics & Computation is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Containing Epidemic Spreading on Networks with Neighbor Resource Supporting

Previous studies revealed that the susceptibility, contacting preference, and recovery probability markedly alter the epidemic outbreak size and threshold. The recovery probability of an infected node is closely related to its obtained resources. How to allocate limited resources to infected neighbors is extremely important for containing the epidemic spreading on complex networks. In this paper, we proposed an epidemic spreading model on complex networks, in which we assume that the node has heterogeneous susceptibility and contacting preference, and susceptible nodes are willing to share their resources to neighbors. Through a developed heterogeneous mean-field theory and a large number of numerical simulations, we find that the recovered nodes provide resources uniformly to their infected neighbor nodes, and the epidemic spreading can be suppressed optimally on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. Besides, altering the susceptibility and contacting preference does not qualitatively change the results. The susceptibility of the node decreases, which makes the outbreak threshold of epidemic spreading increase, and the outbreak size decreases. Our theory agrees well with the numerical simulations.